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Topics - Zeo

#1
Politics / Opinion: I have never
November 06, 2024, 03:33:24 AM
I have never been so presented with human stupidity in my life.

Fucking elect a god damned criminal that fucked up so bad the first time, the only reason he didn't get removed from office is because we actually fired his goddamn dumb ass.

Trump's campaign in any other time would  have been ended 10x over, yet fucking dumbasses voted for him because Kamela doesn't have a damn dick.

I hope you enjoy your hell, but the rest of us didn't deserve to go with you.
#2
Politics / Opinion talking heads can’t count
November 06, 2024, 01:04:23 AM
At 1 am, they're all saying Harris MUST take pa to win.

This is bad math.  Nevada + Arizona + michigan, Wisconsin + Minnesota is a very possible path, with OUT Pennsylvania right now
#3
Kamela is going to win, but probably lose the Senate, which is a bigger loss.

But if she loses , it's a devastating loss, because the House is already lost.
#4
This will be short and sweet:  Kamela Harris is America's choice via popular vote(and likely by double digits), but that  doesn't mean she's won (yet).  The Electoral College, hailed as the rural savior, or the Republican Welfare office, depending on who you ask, is harder to convince.

However, when

A. The popular vote is this highly favored.

B. Kamela has had a meteoric rise.

C.Trump has held steady , despite several events that couold have boosted him.

D. Favorbilty polls trounce Trump.

E.the conservatives, even the "moderate" ones like the WSJ and the "other" Cnn, aren't posting polls, and Fox News is deliberately posting out dated reference points.

 The only 2 reasons trump is still in the race:

He's a master mud slinger and lier.
He has a penis and she doesn't.

It's clear Kamela's ahead, and only an EC broblock can stop her.

References:
538 pretty much has the only aggregate relatively neutral favorability poll result, and it's held to be the gold standard. (Most other sites have extreme biases or cherry pick) Kamela is TROUNCING trump in favorability, and is pulling ahead in the polls toward that magic number called "margin of error:."

 The Guardian And BBC, while also being main stream media and sharing the slant that media has, agree.
Even aljazeera, who's best interests (as in their SURVIVAL in my opinion) lie in Trump  winning, by a  LONG SHOT, is more optimistic about Harris.

Conservative Fox News never started  tracking approval OR poll ratings for Harris after Biden dropped out, because well, A relatively even contest  is fine, getting your candidate trounced isn't.  Fox news clearly understands this as is they the only track Biden's favorability poll numbers(a self made lame duck).

They know a loser when they see one, and Biden and Trump are peas in that pod.  Old news, and should stay that way.

And not surprisingly, all the other conservative sites that discuss polls, have very small samples, and extra ordinary cherry picking.  You can blame that on the mainstream media bias if you want, but truth be told, adfontes (and allsides) clearly shows there's not a lot of reliable conservative sites as there are  liberal ones.  I used the 40  out of 70 facts over opinions rating, which does NOT include Fox News or CNN.


World news today, Christian news network and the Wall Street Journal are as good as it gets, and none of them show polls. This is telling.

But WSJ does have an article saying Kamela's rise is definitely something to be  considered.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/kamala-harris-election-2024-fd6ca18b?mod=election2024<---paywall, but necessary to prove the point, and the free  title is making that point)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model}
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/aug/23/presidential-polls-kamala-harris-donald-trump-election
https://www.aljazeera.com/us-election-2024

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls
https://adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/
#5
Drawing / new eye tutorial
October 03, 2024, 06:16:26 PM
https://tips.clip-studio.com/en-us/articles/6585

Since the old one got taken down
#6
News / THEMES!!!!!!!
October 02, 2024, 12:38:02 PM
Themes!

finally there's some to be had, including, but not limited to, THIS one in Dark mode!
 
Expect an update tomorrow and  finally getting the forums back on it's dark gamer mode.
#7
This is a direct data interpretation from a September 2019 poll by New York Times/Sienna college of likely voters, and is solely my opinion.

I am doing something called cross reference polling interpretation, and it does lean toward to who ever wins the most categories wins, but that's it's intent.  Voters only have one choice in the ballot box, but these polls have several questions.  You can't just say the majority of this poll says T+1, when you as them to vote 3 times, based on criteria you give them.  And then weigh them on statistics(which how they do it isn't 100% clear.)

Meanwhile I just simply take each Unique category, and add all the percentages together and average them out.



TrumpHarrisPercentile of responsesSpreadOutside of a 5% margin of error
Under 3037581321TRUE
30-443945226TRUE
45-644947332FALSE
65+5144287TRUE
men5440not stated14TRUE
women3754not stated17TRUE
no college563825* see note 118TRUE
4 year college degree356125* see note 126TRUE
black15791164TRUE
white54436711TRUE
Asian/Other(as per poll question)4346 3FALSE
Hispanic513912TRUE
Final result raw43.42%49.50% 6.08%TRUE
final result without double counting Hispanics (toggling the "Hispanic" row since they are also considered white or black)
Final result adjusted43.73%50.75% 7.73%TRUE




While I have slight hesitation calling Penn, hence the election, for Kamela, it's only because this is only one poll.  I am doing so anyway.   I can't see the cross voting going far enough to eat that approximately +6-7 advantage even with the NYT lean.  It's over the adjusted normal polling error edge too(normal is 3%, but no year has been normal with Trump), so it would  take a  somewhat significant shift in fortune toward Trump to change, and it's getting pretty damn late for that.  Kamela has gained pretty much the entire cycle, and baring a major fuck up, I don't see that changing.

However it's just a demographics poll of likely voters Sept 19th New York/sienna, with their aggregate being trump 1% ahead. While I disagree with a trump +1 result (keep in mind the NYT polls are considered D+ 1 at least, so them showing a T+1 on this kinda data is them trying very hard to be fair, and not repeat 2016.), it's important to remember, as I noted in  my foot notes, issues are just as important, and I found zero good data on that,


Kamela has also picked up like 1-2 points since then(this is the most recent full data set I could find.). Also with Hispanics being counted both in and out of their racial group, this kinda makes a big difference. Which is why we have a "Latino" vote, however to do that correctly, they should be 100% their own race. ( I call this part specifically bad polling.)


Also again I see intent to not underestimate Trump, again, despite the sampling being heavily in his favor by default, as evidenced by the amount of whites polled, and As noted in my disclaimers as well, Hispanics are counted twice (see point 2), as well as education being counted several hodgepodge ways. See point 1.


Despite the high rank of this poll, I find this "deskew" for Trump somewhat aggressive, and am leaving it, because it proves my point even better then if I tried to fix it. While I'm not unqualified to do so, and know how, I am no where near as such as Nate Silver or Professor Litchman, and both explain how to do skew and deskew correctly if interested.


*Disclaimers


1. "with college" education  voting data shouldn't be presented ONLY as combined with racial data. An associates degree is important to separate from race, as is not all races are equally represented, and a more then significant amount of people with an associate SHOULD have a BA, save Foreign language gen ed requirements, esp among millennial voters. This is especially true when they have data on what percentile of respondents have some college!


2. Race and heritage are different, I do not approve of the double categorization of Hispanics, or Asians just being part of other.


3. I am an independent, but I am definitely against trump, however I hope my methods show I'm not massaging the numbers.

4. I wanted to includes stances on abortion, immigration, and lgbt as the big topics, but can't find a reliable poll on those to factor in for this election, that doesn't combine  these with party affiliations(which are useless to me THIS election) . Its not R vs D, its literally referendum on Trump!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model


Edited for grammer and punctuation (Capital letters and a coma replaced with a period).




#8
Politics / RULES!
October 01, 2024, 01:31:56 PM
Fox News is a credible source, if fact checked. Actually fact check everything, but FN is of special note.

DO:
-post about what you do and don't like policy wise.
-Post about a candidates character
-Aggregate opinions
-Format your posts as below


Do NOT:
-post untrue topics, fact check yourself.
-post or copy any pay walled article, (With dependency on it's paywalled contents.)   Find an open one.  Pay walled articles are often VERY biased, and can't be reviewed by staff here.
-refuse to accept credible sources because you think the main stream media is biased.  We all know most mainstream media has a slight left lean, that doesn't mean  it's "fake news".
-Post editorials and opinion blogs as facts.
-Post any opinion or link to any opinion that endorses "*insert name here* Derangement Syndrome"- instant BAN
-insult or dismiss an opinion as invalid just because it's a Accumulation of facts, not the exact smoking gun you want.

Post labeling:

"NEWS: News post! READ ME!" these must be linked and fact check linked at the bottom.

"Opinion: This is my opinion."  These must not be deliberately or over offensive.  They do not HAVE to be fact checked,but it's a good idea that you do when available.

"Editorial: This is an interpretation of someone else's article or site."  These must follow the same criteria as news, Link to the editorial and fact check on the topic, if available.

"Date Dump:  Data"  Just data, no explanations.  fact check and linked.

examples

"News! Litchman calls election for Harris!"

Opinion: "Nate Silver is leaning too far right to avoid repeat of 2016 blunder."

"Editorial:  Why poll rankings suck(hint: It has:nothing to do with Nate Silve'sr or 538's criteria.)

"Data dump: Copy of Litchman's keys"
#9
News / ID verification
August 01, 2024, 12:32:50 PM
I posted this before, but it was confusing.

Objective proof of age, SUCH AS an ID, would need displayed to access any future adult sections,  Ripple verification, membership at other adult sites, etc counts.  There is a plethora of easy options for this.

A State ID must be on file per USC 18 ONLY if you wish to CREATE and POST adult content on GU.  This can be worked around by  uploading elsewhere and linking.

So access to USE the gallery and the University does requires an ID on file,  To just view them(or text only posts), only requires I have objective proof of your age.

AGAIN ADULT CONTENT IS A SIDELINE.  If that's all you;re here for, move on. there's no lack of porn online.
#10
News / loss of theme
March 01, 2024, 05:02:26 AM
helios is incompatible with smf 2.1

replacement shopping
#11
News / To whomever thinks it's cute
March 01, 2024, 01:20:04 AM
To whomever thinks it's cute too keep fucking deleting my settings file, I'm going to hunt you down and sue the living shit out of you as  soon I trace your ass,

I'm not kidding, ask  anyone that's fucked with me.
#13
News / State of the Site adress Q3 2022
October 20, 2022, 10:21:17 PM
So things have not gone to plan, covid being the driving force.

First and foremost  I essentially went from making $37 an hour equivalent to 18, to now ABOUT 12.00 an hour on short term.  This leaves me short on cash, hard.  For those of you wondering how this happens, its the  result of the loss of 20 hours a week over time, and then having to go on disability (which has consumed more time with appointments tests and bullshit then working did.)  Covid KILLED over time DOA.


I have found  a service that will help me modernize what i want to do, AND make it most importantly. MOBILE COMPATIBLE.  This is something that is new to me, and has been a source of major fustration.  However, with the pay cut, I cannot afford to utilize this service Currently.  after bonuses and taxes, I will probably be purchasing this service. 

That being said, the good news is, since I'm not going to worry about the main coding any more, just gonna wait till  an afford to have them do it, I can focus on the other major requests, and that's the arcade and the art studios.
Most the art stuff is set up, just gotta convince people to use it.  Arcade though needs some serious work, i need to find either onsite secure flash emulator, or a non flash based arcade, both of which seem to be nonexistent.

Still working on it, but I don't want  anything half assed.
#14
Web Comics / Web comics
August 30, 2022, 11:59:04 PM
Web comics start with their own threads, if they get popular enough I will give them their own forum.
#15
Web Comics / A God without power is still a God
August 30, 2022, 11:57:01 PM

A God without power is still a God


After gaining recognition from Jehovah Mekoddishkem, for completing his/thier role in the world, Juestan rules his/their Universe, and is down right bored. With a look, he/they can quell what little unrest there is. Sin is impossible, Hell hath claimed the few thousand souls that belong there, the righteous rewarded, the slackers in faith and fellowship building their repentance and his/thier City.

What is a Representative of God to do?  Rescind his/thier  power, and allow the world to become interesting!

Sidenote: The ripple lines represent Juestan's martyrdom.  In this universe he was drowned by having his head held in a bucket, his executioners believing that's the way to humiliate a man who claims to be more then a man. This also makes him/them a lesser Magister in the Multiverse, having had an easier and less influential role in his/thier world while it was active then other Magisters.  This won't be super important, other then the symbology.

my web comic, slow updates, but it's a start
#16
Stock Market / You can't win them all.
May 31, 2022, 07:33:13 PM
Don't panic sell.  even if you lose inflation wise, hold you stocks so you don;t actualize real losses.

Lesson of the day here is

1. You can;t predict when a madman is gonna start a war, but every half century is a good start.
2. Oil is a long term loss, should be avoided like the plague.  Why people don;t know this is beyond me.
#17
News / Down Time
May 27, 2021, 09:19:23 AM
So apparently Moha misconfigured something while I was down for surgery, but I"m highly impressed it took then less then 5 minutes to fix it from contact.

Meanwhile I am not recovering as well as as i should be, so I've not been able to work on things as i should. hopefully i can get this resolved and get tihs up and running the way I want it soon.
#18
Stock Market / Long term verses short term
March 24, 2021, 09:48:17 AM
Everyone says buy low and sell high, this is good advice.

There is so much more to long term stock trading then share price!

So yes, for day trading find a volatile stock and map its patterns  and catch it on a low.

But if you plan on LONG TERM, you want to find the lowest priced stock you can that pays DIVIDENDS per share.

The idea here is you are writing that money off for few years anyway, why not get some of it back, for FREE!

For instance I have stock that pays .25 cents a share every quarter.  I have 200 shares.  That means $400(fees snd taxes come out of dividends, and this stock  has multiplers determined by the board) garunteed money every year, even if it loses money on the market!  If it loses money, I Invest it back into it and get MORE shares, and more dividends. This is the smart way, you really can't lose much long term, and you HAVE INCOME.

#19
News / New forums
March 24, 2021, 04:41:00 AM
As is the redesign is basically done, I just gotta find a hunk of time to test an debug, and work on forum integration a little better, I'm starting to move on to adding new boards.  Also the Hallery is ibstalled, and I eill be working on msking it a bitter better suited to what it needs to be.

After I get the rest if the site ironed out, integrating GUR into it going to be next  priority.  Then the group play/racing module..
#20
News / Down Time
February 20, 2021, 11:33:03 PM
Main page wil probably l be down part of next weekend .for main page redesign upload.  For those of you who liked the old design, I will try and make it available as well later.