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https://tips.clip-studio.com/en-us/articles/6585

Since the old one got taken down

Themes!

finally there's some to be had, including, but not limited to, THIS one in Dark mode!
 
Expect an update tomorrow and  finally getting the forums back on it's dark gamer mode.

This is a direct data interpretation from a September 2019 poll by New York Times/Sienna college of likely voters, and is solely my opinion.

I am doing something called cross reference polling interpretation, and it does lean toward to who ever wins the most categories wins, but that's it's intent.  Voters only have one choice in the ballot box, but these polls have several questions.  You can't just say the majority of this poll says T+1, when you as them to vote 3 times, based on criteria you give them.  And then weigh them on statistics(which how they do it isn't 100% clear.)

Meanwhile I just simply take each Unique category, and add all the percentages together and average them out.

	Trump	Harris	Percentile of responses	Spread	Outside of a 5% margin of error
Under 30	37	58	13	21	TRUE
30-44	39	45	22	6	TRUE
45-64	49	47	33	2	FALSE
65+	51	44	28	7	TRUE
men	54	40	not stated	14	TRUE
women	37	54	not stated	17	TRUE
no college	56	38	25* see note 1	18	TRUE
4 year college degree	35	61	25* see note 1	26	TRUE
black	15	79	11	64	TRUE
white	54	43	67	11	TRUE
Asian/Other(as per poll question)	43	46		3	FALSE
Hispanic	51	39	10	12	TRUE
Final result raw	43.42%	49.50%		6.08%	TRUE
final result without double counting Hispanics (toggling the "Hispanic" row since they are also considered white or black)
Final result adjusted	43.73%	50.75%		7.73%	TRUE

While I have slight hesitation calling Penn, hence the election, for Kamela, it's only because this is only one poll.  I am doing so anyway.   I can't see the cross voting going far enough to eat that approximately +6-7 advantage even with the NYT lean.  It's over the adjusted normal polling error edge too(normal is 3%, but no year has been normal with Trump), so it would  take a  somewhat significant shift in fortune toward Trump to change, and it's getting pretty damn late for that.  Kamela has gained pretty much the entire cycle, and baring a major fuck up, I don't see that changing.

However it's just a demographics poll of likely voters Sept 19th New York/sienna, with their aggregate being trump 1% ahead. While I disagree with a trump +1 result (keep in mind the NYT polls are considered D+ 1 at least, so them showing a T+1 on this kinda data is them trying very hard to be fair, and not repeat 2016.), it's important to remember, as I noted in  my foot notes, issues are just as important, and I found zero good data on that,


Kamela has also picked up like 1-2 points since then(this is the most recent full data set I could find.). Also with Hispanics being counted both in and out of their racial group, this kinda makes a big difference. Which is why we have a "Latino" vote, however to do that correctly, they should be 100% their own race. ( I call this part specifically bad polling.)


Also again I see intent to not underestimate Trump, again, despite the sampling being heavily in his favor by default, as evidenced by the amount of whites polled, and As noted in my disclaimers as well, Hispanics are counted twice (see point 2), as well as education being counted several hodgepodge ways. See point 1.


Despite the high rank of this poll, I find this "deskew" for Trump somewhat aggressive, and am leaving it, because it proves my point even better then if I tried to fix it. While I'm not unqualified to do so, and know how, I am no where near as such as Nate Silver or Professor Litchman, and both explain how to do skew and deskew correctly if interested.


*Disclaimers


1. "with college" education  voting data shouldn't be presented ONLY as combined with racial data. An associates degree is important to separate from race, as is not all races are equally represented, and a more then significant amount of people with an associate SHOULD have a BA, save Foreign language gen ed requirements, esp among millennial voters. This is especially true when they have data on what percentile of respondents have some college!


2. Race and heritage are different, I do not approve of the double categorization of Hispanics, or Asians just being part of other.


3. I am an independent, but I am definitely against trump, however I hope my methods show I'm not massaging the numbers.

4. I wanted to includes stances on abortion, immigration, and lgbt as the big topics, but can't find a reliable poll on those to factor in for this election, that doesn't combine  these with party affiliations(which are useless to me THIS election) . Its not R vs D, its literally referendum on Trump!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited for grammer and punctuation (Capital letters and a coma replaced with a period).

Fox News is a credible source, if fact checked. Actually fact check everything, but FN is of special note.

DO:
-post about what you do and don't like policy wise.
-Post about a candidates character
-Aggregate opinions
-Format your posts as below

Do NOT:
-post untrue topics, fact check yourself.
-post or copy any pay walled article.   Find an open one.  Pay walled articles are often VERY biased, and can't be reviewed by staff here.
-refuse to accept credible sources because you think the main stream media is biased.  We all know most mainstream media has a slight left lean, that doesn't mean  it's "fake news".
-Post editorials and opinion blogs as facts.
-Post any opinion or link to any opinion that endorses "*insert name here* Derangement Syndrome"- instant BAN
-insult or dismiss an opinion as invalid just because it's a Accumulation of facts, not the exact smoking gun you want.

Post labeling:

"NEWS: News post! READ ME!" these must be linked and fact check linked at the bottom.

"Opinion: This is my opinion."  These must not be deliberately or over offensive.  They do not HAVE to be fact checked,but it's a good idea that you do when available.

"Editorial: This is an interpretation of someone else's article or site."  These must follow the same criteria as news, Link to the editorial and fact check on the topic. .

"Date Dump:  Data"  Just data, no explanations.  fact check and linked.

examples

"News! Litchman calls election for Harris!"

Opinion: "Nate Silver is leaning too far right to avoid repeat of 2016 blunder."

"Editorial:  Why poll rankings suck(hint: It has:nothing to do with Nate Silve'sr or 538's criteria.)

"Data dump: Copy of Litchman's keys"

I posted this before, but it was confusing.

Objective proof of age, SUCH AS an ID, would need displayed to access any future adult sections,  Ripple verification, membership at other adult sites, etc counts.  There is a plethora of easy options for this.

A State ID must be on file per USC 18 ONLY if you wish to CREATE and POST adult content on GU.  This can be worked around by  uploading elsewhere and linking.

So access to USE the gallery and the University does requires an ID on file,  To just view them(or text only posts), only requires I have objective proof of your age.

AGAIN ADULT CONTENT IS A SIDELINE.  If that's all you;re here for, move on. there's no lack of porn online.

helios is incompatible with smf 2.1

replacement shopping

To whomever thinks it's cute too keep fucking deleting my settings file, I'm going to hunt you down and sue the living shit out of you as  soon I trace your ass,

I'm not kidding, ask  anyone that's fucked with me.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1963239270731906/?s=ifu

So things have not gone to plan, covid being the driving force.

First and foremost  I essentially went from making $37 an hour equivalent to 18, to now ABOUT 12.00 an hour on short term.  This leaves me short on cash, hard.  For those of you wondering how this happens, its the  result of the loss of 20 hours a week over time, and then having to go on disability (which has consumed more time with appointments tests and bullshit then working did.)  Covid KILLED over time DOA.


I have found  a service that will help me modernize what i want to do, AND make it most importantly. MOBILE COMPATIBLE.  This is something that is new to me, and has been a source of major fustration.  However, with the pay cut, I cannot afford to utilize this service Currently.  after bonuses and taxes, I will probably be purchasing this service. 

That being said, the good news is, since I'm not going to worry about the main coding any more, just gonna wait till  an afford to have them do it, I can focus on the other major requests, and that's the arcade and the art studios.
Most the art stuff is set up, just gotta convince people to use it.  Arcade though needs some serious work, i need to find either onsite secure flash emulator, or a non flash based arcade, both of which seem to be nonexistent.

Still working on it, but I don't want  anything half assed.

Web comics start with their own threads, if they get popular enough I will give them their own forum.

A God without power is still a God


After gaining recognition from Jehovah Mekoddishkem, for completing his/thier role in the world, Juestan rules his/their Universe, and is down right bored. With a look, he/they can quell what little unrest there is. Sin is impossible, Hell hath claimed the few thousand souls that belong there, the righteous rewarded, the slackers in faith and fellowship building their repentance and his/thier City.

What is a Representative of God to do?  Rescind his/thier  power, and allow the world to become interesting!

Sidenote: The ripple lines represent Juestan's martyrdom.  In this universe he was drowned by having his head held in a bucket, his executioners believing that's the way to humiliate a man who claims to be more then a man. This also makes him/them a lesser Magister in the Multiverse, having had an easier and less influential role in his/thier world while it was active then other Magisters.  This won't be super important, other then the symbology.

my web comic, slow updates, but it's a start

Don't panic sell.  even if you lose inflation wise, hold you stocks so you don;t actualize real losses.

Lesson of the day here is

1. You can;t predict when a madman is gonna start a war, but every half century is a good start.
2. Oil is a long term loss, should be avoided like the plague.  Why people don;t know this is beyond me.

So apparently Moha misconfigured something while I was down for surgery, but I"m highly impressed it took then less then 5 minutes to fix it from contact.

Meanwhile I am not recovering as well as as i should be, so I've not been able to work on things as i should. hopefully i can get this resolved and get tihs up and running the way I want it soon.

Everyone says buy low and sell high, this is good advice.

There is so much more to long term stock trading then share price!

So yes, for day trading find a volatile stock and map its patterns  and catch it on a low.

But if you plan on LONG TERM, you want to find the lowest priced stock you can that pays DIVIDENDS per share.

The idea here is you are writing that money off for few years anyway, why not get some of it back, for FREE!

For instance I have stock that pays .25 cents a share every quarter.  I have 200 shares.  That means $400(fees snd taxes come out of dividends, and this stock  has multiplers determined by the board) garunteed money every year, even if it loses money on the market!  If it loses money, I Invest it back into it and get MORE shares, and more dividends. This is the smart way, you really can't lose much long term, and you HAVE INCOME.

As is the redesign is basically done, I just gotta find a hunk of time to test an debug, and work on forum integration a little better, I'm starting to move on to adding new boards.  Also the Hallery is ibstalled, and I eill be working on msking it a bitter better suited to what it needs to be.

After I get the rest if the site ironed out, integrating GUR into it going to be next  priority.  Then the group play/racing module..

Main page wil probably l be down part of next weekend .for main page redesign upload.  For those of you who liked the old design, I will try and make it available as well later.

I;m going to try and do this at the end of each Month after the quarter ends.

So for the last 3 months of 2020:

What was accomplished

1. Migration to a host and multiple years of hosting set up.
2. Maintenance page up, and site plan made.
3. Fixing (replacing) the database errors caused by Rowan's deletion of the database (Which actually started like in July upon review of the admin logs....)
4. reserving as many names as possible for returning members.

What was NOT accomplished yet

1. Site Base redesign.
2. re-implementation of the GU reporter code and GUR.
3. Migration from SMF to a platform that can handle being a one stop shop.
4. The GU app
5. New Logo

What has been accomplished in the first month of 2021

1. Domain name secured for years to come.

Q1 2021 goals

1. Finish basic redesign of main site
2. Get GUR back up and running correctly in new design
3. New Logo finished and New GU banner Done
4. Get Zel's svc repository running.

Q2 2021 Goals.

1. Get racing subsystem operational and in beta
2. Get blogger/Writing system operation and in Beta
3. Get art gallery into operational and into Beta
4. Set up Cafe Press.
5. Finish any outstanding Q1 goals

Q3 goals

1. Finish Q2 goals and get at least once system into Release format.
2. Have saved enough money to hire an App developer to help make the GU app.

Q4 goals,
1. Get the site back to at least 1000 members, with 100 actives.
2. start forming affiliations with other websites.
3. Get non obtrusive advertising set up. (see the buttons on the bottom SMF/Helios puts on there? stuff like that.)

Ideally by the end of 2021 I want everything back up and running.  probably not going to happen given my job, but we'll see.  These goals are site wide only, and do not include any projects or personal content I will be making.

Which costume do you want to see the most.

These documents have been updated, keep an eye on these as is they will continue to evolve.  Unlike before.

All my god is this game addictive as hell.


so basically the idea is hope every gets about 600 coins then personally kill everyone off, and get fist place so you get like 10K.  Ultra competitive and kinda brutal.

And HOLY! 20 lakitu's scuk.