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https://tips.clip-studio.com/en-us/articles/6585

Since the old one got taken down

Themes!

finally there's some to be had, including, but not limited to, THIS one in Dark mode!
 
Expect an update tomorrow and  finally getting the forums back on it's dark gamer mode.

This is a direct data interpretation from a September 2019 poll by New York Times/Sienna college of likely voters, and is solely my opinion.

I am doing something called cross reference polling interpretation, and it does lean toward to who ever wins the most categories wins, but that's it's intent.  Voters only have one choice in the ballot box, but these polls have several questions.  You can't just say the majority of this poll says T+1, when you as them to vote 3 times, based on criteria you give them.  And then weigh them on statistics(which how they do it isn't 100% clear.)

Meanwhile I just simply take each Unique category, and add all the percentages together and average them out.

	Trump	Harris	Percentile of responses	Spread	Outside of a 5% margin of error
Under 30	37	58	13	21	TRUE
30-44	39	45	22	6	TRUE
45-64	49	47	33	2	FALSE
65+	51	44	28	7	TRUE
men	54	40	not stated	14	TRUE
women	37	54	not stated	17	TRUE
no college	56	38	25* see note 1	18	TRUE
4 year college degree	35	61	25* see note 1	26	TRUE
black	15	79	11	64	TRUE
white	54	43	67	11	TRUE
Asian/Other(as per poll question)	43	46		3	FALSE
Hispanic	51	39	10	12	TRUE
Final result raw	43.42%	49.50%		6.08%	TRUE
final result without double counting Hispanics (toggling the "Hispanic" row since they are also considered white or black)
Final result adjusted	43.73%	50.75%		7.73%	TRUE

While I have slight hesitation calling Penn, hence the election, for Kamela, it's only because this is only one poll.  I am doing so anyway.   I can't see the cross voting going far enough to eat that approximately +6-7 advantage even with the NYT lean.  It's over the adjusted normal polling error edge too(normal is 3%, but no year has been normal with Trump), so it would  take a  somewhat significant shift in fortune toward Trump to change, and it's getting pretty damn late for that.  Kamela has gained pretty much the entire cycle, and baring a major fuck up, I don't see that changing.

However it's just a demographics poll of likely voters Sept 19th New York/sienna, with their aggregate being trump 1% ahead. While I disagree with a trump +1 result (keep in mind the NYT polls are considered D+ 1 at least, so them showing a T+1 on this kinda data is them trying very hard to be fair, and not repeat 2016.), it's important to remember, as I noted in  my foot notes, issues are just as important, and I found zero good data on that,


Kamela has also picked up like 1-2 points since then(this is the most recent full data set I could find.). Also with Hispanics being counted both in and out of their racial group, this kinda makes a big difference. Which is why we have a "Latino" vote, however to do that correctly, they should be 100% their own race. ( I call this part specifically bad polling.)


Also again I see intent to not underestimate Trump, again, despite the sampling being heavily in his favor by default, as evidenced by the amount of whites polled, and As noted in my disclaimers as well, Hispanics are counted twice (see point 2), as well as education being counted several hodgepodge ways. See point 1.


Despite the high rank of this poll, I find this "deskew" for Trump somewhat aggressive, and am leaving it, because it proves my point even better then if I tried to fix it. While I'm not unqualified to do so, and know how, I am no where near as such as Nate Silver or Professor Litchman, and both explain how to do skew and deskew correctly if interested.


*Disclaimers


1. "with college" education  voting data shouldn't be presented ONLY as combined with racial data. An associates degree is important to separate from race, as is not all races are equally represented, and a more then significant amount of people with an associate SHOULD have a BA, save Foreign language gen ed requirements, esp among millennial voters. This is especially true when they have data on what percentile of respondents have some college!


2. Race and heritage are different, I do not approve of the double categorization of Hispanics, or Asians just being part of other.


3. I am an independent, but I am definitely against trump, however I hope my methods show I'm not massaging the numbers.

4. I wanted to includes stances on abortion, immigration, and lgbt as the big topics, but can't find a reliable poll on those to factor in for this election, that doesn't combine  these with party affiliations(which are useless to me THIS election) . Its not R vs D, its literally referendum on Trump!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited for grammer and punctuation (Capital letters and a coma replaced with a period).

Fox News is a credible source, if fact checked. Actually fact check everything, but FN is of special note.

DO:
-post about what you do and don't like policy wise.
-Post about a candidates character
-Aggregate opinions
-Format your posts as below

Do NOT:
-post untrue topics, fact check yourself.
-post or copy any pay walled article.   Find an open one.  Pay walled articles are often VERY biased, and can't be reviewed by staff here.
-refuse to accept credible sources because you think the main stream media is biased.  We all know most mainstream media has a slight left lean, that doesn't mean  it's "fake news".
-Post editorials and opinion blogs as facts.
-Post any opinion or link to any opinion that endorses "*insert name here* Derangement Syndrome"- instant BAN
-insult or dismiss an opinion as invalid just because it's a Accumulation of facts, not the exact smoking gun you want.

Post labeling:

"NEWS: News post! READ ME!" these must be linked and fact check linked at the bottom.

"Opinion: This is my opinion."  These must not be deliberately or over offensive.  They do not HAVE to be fact checked,but it's a good idea that you do when available.

"Editorial: This is an interpretation of someone else's article or site."  These must follow the same criteria as news, Link to the editorial and fact check on the topic. .

"Date Dump:  Data"  Just data, no explanations.  fact check and linked.

examples

"News! Litchman calls election for Harris!"

Opinion: "Nate Silver is leaning too far right to avoid repeat of 2016 blunder."

"Editorial:  Why poll rankings suck(hint: It has:nothing to do with Nate Silve'sr or 538's criteria.)

"Data dump: Copy of Litchman's keys"

i concur, but his call.

I'm probably not gonna count on getting a response but I stumbled upon GU Fighter on the Internet Archive. The game (naturally) doesn't work properly on Windows 10, with a complete lack of sound and some lag. Is there some kind of way i can fix this? Additionally i'm slightly interested in making content for the GU Fighter engine as I feel like custom fighting games are my own niche.

GU fighter was coded for, if I'm not mistaken, windows 7.

There  is simply no way to make it work properly Windows 10, mostly due to the shift in architecture from 32 bit to 64.


DOsBOX isn't an option unless  they've made a 32 bit environment that supports a Windows 7/8 install.  You would then  also need  a windows 7 id key.

I posted this before, but it was confusing.

Objective proof of age, SUCH AS an ID, would need displayed to access any future adult sections,  Ripple verification, membership at other adult sites, etc counts.  There is a plethora of easy options for this.

A State ID must be on file per USC 18 ONLY if you wish to CREATE and POST adult content on GU.  This can be worked around by  uploading elsewhere and linking.

So access to USE the gallery and the University does requires an ID on file,  To just view them(or text only posts), only requires I have objective proof of your age.

AGAIN ADULT CONTENT IS A SIDELINE.  If that's all you;re here for, move on. there's no lack of porn online.

I didn't like the demo, it's imo Wario Ware reskinned.  Didn't care for that either

social security is next week, and that's the big one, TSA is unknown because it depends if the appeal is granted, if it is, it it will take longer then shoving a broomstick up my Senator's ass.  But it will also be a better result.

Best buy I'm going to have to amend the Ohio Constitution to run them out the god damned state, dishonorable rat bastards from hell. That's pocket change for them, and we agreed to it, but they won't fucking pay UP, they frauded me out of a LOT of time and money, the mother fucking demon spawn.

Tile and Post office same as above, save the Post office is Federally protected from being cast aside
.

No , yes.

The thing holding me back is time to money ratio.

I'm being required to do all this medical bs to get/stay on disability.  So I'm constantly running around.

Once I get ON SS, my time will free up considerably.  And I can stop spending all my money on machines and medicines etc.

I don't need the lawsuits to win. I just need to not spend what time I feel decent running all over the place spending money I don't have.


And this bears repeating.  If it was JUST a matter if a desktop site, like in 2006, this would be done.  But the templates and code i learned in hs/college are the OPPOSITE of mobile friendly.

I never was a direct creator, I was always a manager.  I put random shit together and make it more than the sum if it's parts.  Attempting to learn and code mobile from scratch, would be much less efficient then I care to attempt at this point, esp  since I only for see a need to use the skill once.  Maintaining code is totally different than creating code.

It's a BIG waste of time compared to content creation, which cones down to time dispersion. I can crank that out fast if I wasn't bring pulled in10k directions.  I can't learn how to code mobile very quickly at all, even if i had my time managed the way i want it.

quick update:

Court cases are wrapping up one way or another pretty soon, in Federal terms.  either we're going to be proceeding shortly, OR appeal the Supreme court.

If that fails, then time to put the thumbscrews on Congress, they made this mess, they can fix it if the Courts won't.

helios is incompatible with smf 2.1

replacement shopping

To whomever thinks it's cute too keep fucking deleting my settings file, I'm going to hunt you down and sue the living shit out of you as  soon I trace your ass,

I'm not kidding, ask  anyone that's fucked with me.

That shows how little you know about copyright law.

C 2001 since 2001 establishes copyright, it is Not only not illegal, it protects my legal rights. Exception is if Jim actually bothered to file IN 2001, and that's highly contestable anyway, and he would have to try and sue me, and he's gonna laughed outta court at this point.n.  Highly double that lazy ass loafing idiot ever bothered to file shit, and i know  you didn't.  Gu is actually going to behosting my Community Center project anyway, and once I get the grants cleared for that, i can hire that guy to redo everything.


As for the other  the name, they can fuck off too, we were using that name first,so they have no standing to sue, even if they did file  it in 2002.   We are  also not in a conflating position, meaning they don't run online programming and art hosting, and I don;t run a Game store,  nor are either one of us claiming to be the other.

And no I really don't. there's a difference between being able to relearn an skilltree  that a bunch of people fucked up and added an entirely new dimension too in clell phones over the 20 years,  and yelling at Best Buy and the Feds.

saving up money for that guy to recode everything, but since that  sleep doctor almost killed me, i've been having to dick with social security on t
op of every thing else.